Australian Market Valuation Book

The pack takes a focus on Valuation Indicators and includes:

Composite valua…

Australian Market Valuation Book - February 2026

Callum Thomas — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 04:21:33 GMT

Hello and welcome to the !

Australian Market Valuation Book February 2026

984KB ∙ PDF file

The pack takes a focus on Valuation Indicators and includes:

Composite valua…

Australian Market Valuation Book - January 2026

Callum Thomas — Mon, 02 Feb 2026 00:19:51 GMT

Hello and welcome to the !

Australian Market Valuation Book January 2026

899KB ∙ PDF file

The pack takes a focus on Valuation Indicators and includes:

Composite valua…

Australian Market Valuation Book - December 2025

Callum Thomas — Fri, 02 Jan 2026 05:25:34 GMT

Hello and welcome to the !

Australian Market Valuation Book December 2025

896KB ∙ PDF file

The pack takes a focus on Valuation Indicators and includes:

Composite valua…

Australian Market Valuation Book - November 2025

Callum Thomas — Sun, 30 Nov 2025 23:24:44 GMT

Hello and welcome to the !

Australian Market Valuation Book November 2025

896KB ∙ PDF file

The pack takes a focus on Valuation Indicators and includes:

Composite valua…

Chart: Australian Stock/Bond Ratio

Callum Thomas — Fri, 07 Nov 2025 04:20:27 GMT

The stock/bond ratio is something investors the world over pay attention to because it both represents the most important relative performance line for asset allocators and gives clues on the path of the two main public market asset classes.

The Australian stock/bond ratio stands out for a few reasons.

Technicals: while there is a fairly clear and strong uptrend in progress the Australian stock/bond ratio is looking very stretched vs trend (we’ve seen this indicator peak in the past when it surged to similar extremes).
Valuations: the latest monthly pack shows Australian stocks slightly expensive, and Australian government bonds very cheap. So from a relative value standpoint bonds have the advantage.
Macro: that said, as discussed in a recent note on the US Stock/Bond Ratio, for the stock/bond ratio to really turn down you typically need to see stocks falling, and most of the time that’s when recession is on the horizon (no clear signs as yet).

So while the Aussie stock/bond ratio could have further to run, it will pay for Australian investors to be vigilant as relative risks rise.

Key takeaway: The Australian stock/bond ratio is at historical extremes, and warrants monitoring as relative value moves in favor of bonds.

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[Webinar is scheduled for EST 2pm Wednesday the 12th of November 2025]

About the Australian Market Valuation Book

The Australian Market Valuation Book features exclusive, innovative, and insightful indicators to provide Clarity and Decision support to Australian investors +those who allocate-to or are interested in understanding this market.

Specifically, the pack covers:

Australian Equities (ASX 200, Small Ords, Banks, Resources, sectors, AREITs).
Australian Fixed Income (corporate credit, government bonds, rates)
Other key markets (AUDUSD, A$ Gold, housing)
Capital Market Assumptions (expected returns for the major assets)

The pack focuses on delivering insight into:

Valuations: is the market cheap/expensive (or neutral)
Trend: is the market in an up/down trend
Price: updates and visibility on where things are tracking
Relative value: comparing absolute and relative prospects

Overall it’s an easy way of quickly and efficiently understanding where the big risks and opportunities are in Australian markets.

Act Now — activate a 7-day trial pass to get instant access to the latest chartbook (+archives) and see if it’s right for you:

Best wishes,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research & Founder
Topdown Charts | www.topdowncharts.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/

NEW: Other services by Topdown Charts

Topdown Charts Entry-Level — [TD entry-level service]
Topdown Charts Professional — [institutional service]
Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]
Monthly Gold Market Pack — [Gold charts]
Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

Australian Market Valuation Book - October 2025

Callum Thomas — Mon, 03 Nov 2025 01:16:32 GMT

Hello and welcome to the !

Australian Market Valuation Book October 2025

888KB ∙ PDF file

The pack takes a focus on Valuation Indicators and includes:

Composite valua…

Chart: Housing Market Valuations

Callum Thomas — Tue, 14 Oct 2025 10:26:20 GMT

Australian and New Zealand share many things in common, but one key issue they both share + struggle with — and let’s be honest: also revel in, is evermore expensive housing markets. It’s a source and store of wealth for many but a hardship and sore point for others. And this week’s chart lays it out clear and bare.

Despite an initial correction following the 2020 stimulus surge in housing, the OECD valuation indicators (price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios) are still at levels never before seen prior to the pandemic (even higher than before the 08 housing bust).
But the other standout is that house prices have been trending up and getting structurally more expensive over the years. This reflects: the structural decline in interest rates, the dual-income trap, rising populations (and immigration) on the demand side, and constraints on supply growth.
As with other markets, the old saying that “valuations don’t matter until they matter“ echo on here too, and ultimately while this represents a key social/political issue + economic and financial system fragility, housing markets only really go down big time when you get either or a combination of surging interest rates, excessive leverage, rising unemployment, macro-prudential tightening, surge in supply, slowdown in population growth, etc.

Key takeaway: Despite an initial correction, Australia and New Zealand still see historically expensive housing markets (a key macro risk and political issue).

This note was brought to you by the

About the Australian Market Valuation Book

Specifically, the pack covers:

Australian Equities (ASX 200, Small Ords, Banks, Resources, sectors, AREITs).
Australian Fixed Income (corporate credit, government bonds, rates)
Other key markets (AUDUSD, A$ Gold, housing)
Capital Market Assumptions (expected returns for the major assets)

The pack focuses on delivering insight into:

Valuations: is the market cheap/expensive (or neutral)
Trend: is the market in an up/down trend
Price: updates and visibility on where things are tracking
Relative value: comparing absolute and relative prospects

Overall it’s an easy way of quickly and efficiently understanding where the big risks and opportunities are in Australian markets.

Act Now — activate a 7-day trial pass to get instant access to the latest chartbook (+archives) and see if it’s right for you:

Best wishes,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research & Founder
Topdown Charts | www.topdowncharts.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/

NEW: Other services by Topdown Charts

Topdown Charts Entry-Level — [TD entry-level service]
Topdown Charts Professional — [institutional service]
Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]
Monthly Gold Market Pack — [Gold charts]
Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

Chart: Australian Credit Spreads

Callum Thomas — Tue, 07 Oct 2025 02:09:30 GMT

Australian corporate credit spreads are approaching historical lows, which means investors are receiving much less compensation than usual for taking on credit risk. There’s a few important implications and caveats arising from this.

The first point is when it comes to credit markets, spreads are like the upside-down equivalent of PE ratios in equity markets (see explainer below). So when you reach very low levels of spreads (like now) that basically means credit is expensive and we’re progressing through the later stages of the market cycle.
The other thing that I’d point out is that this is exactly what’s also going on around the rest of the world, for instance US credit spreads are hovering around levels we last saw just prior to the financial crisis in 2007. This can signal confidence (when it is well justified; during the early-mid stage of the market cycle), but also complacency (during the later stages of the market cycle).
The final point to note would be that even while this indicator does tell us things about the state of the market cycle, investors can still make money in credit when spreads are low if the running yield is decent or if you get a rally in duration during an economic soft patch (that’s not offset by a wave of defaults or spikes in spreads). There’s also the point that spreads can stay low and calm for prolonged periods e.g. during the mid-2000’s. So you have to be pragmatic about things.

Key takeaway: Australian credit spreads are at expensive levels (much like rest of world), investors need to understand what this means from a risk perspective; but also remain pragmatic.

This note was brought to you by the

Click through for a more detailed explanation [Here].

Credit Spread Cycles: just as the stockmarket goes through cycles (reflecting cycles in economic activity, monetary/financial cycles, and industrialization/innovation/investment cycles), credit spreads also go through cycles, as summarized in the chart below.

About the Australian Market Valuation Book

Specifically, the pack covers:

Australian Equities (ASX 200, Small Ords, Banks, Resources, sectors, AREITs).
Australian Fixed Income (corporate credit, government bonds, rates)
Other key markets (AUDUSD, A$ Gold, housing)
Capital Market Assumptions (expected returns for the major assets)

The pack focuses on delivering insight into:

Valuations: is the market cheap/expensive (or neutral)
Trend: is the market in an up/down trend
Price: updates and visibility on where things are tracking
Relative value: comparing absolute and relative prospects

Overall it’s an easy way of quickly and efficiently understanding where the big risks and opportunities are in Australian markets.

Act Now — activate a 7-day trial pass to get instant access to the latest chartbook (+archives) and see if it’s right for you:

Best wishes,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research & Founder
Topdown Charts | www.topdowncharts.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/

NEW: Other services by Topdown Charts

Topdown Charts Entry-Level — [TD entry-level service]
Topdown Charts Professional — [institutional service]
Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]
Monthly Gold Market Pack — [Gold charts]
Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

Australian Market Valuation Book - September 2025

Callum Thomas — Wed, 01 Oct 2025 08:42:59 GMT

Hello and welcome to the !

Australian Market Valuation Book September 2025

893KB ∙ PDF file

The pack takes a focus on Valuation Indicators and includes:

Composite valua…

Chart: Boom & Bust in Developed Markets

Callum Thomas — Tue, 30 Sep 2025 02:59:06 GMT

The history of valuations (in this case looking at the Price-to-trailing 10-year average Earnings [PE 10 Ratio]) across developed market equities has been one of cycles of divergence and convergence as countries’ sharemarkets walk similar but different paths. This week’s chart illustrates these longer-term trends, but also some interesting divergences (and convergences) more recently.

The first point of interest just zooming out to the bigger picture is the cycles of boom and bust, of euphoria and despair …and all 4 markets show multiple cycles of extreme highs and lows across the past 4 decades. This is interesting from an investing standpoint as it validates the idea that there are sometimes better opportunities (+risks to be avoided) by looking globally and across countries (and in across market cycles).
The second observation of intrigue is how all 4 lines started at the roughly the same point back in the depths of 08/09 …but went on to 4 very different paths (mileage can still vary despite similar signals).
The final point is just how far the USA has pulled away from the pack (for a while there NZ was valiantly keeping up, but the 2020/21 stimulus bubble burst put an end to that). As the USA charges deeper into boom/bubble territory, the prospect of eventual inevitable bust comes to mind… but what also comes to mind on the optimistic end is the catch-up trade that appears to be underway for the rest of developed markets.

Key takeaway: The history of boom/bust echoes on today, with the USA out in boom territory, and the rest of developed markets offering the prospect of catch-up from still relatively low levels of valuation.

This note was brought to you by the

About the Australian Market Valuation Book

Specifically, the pack covers:

Australian Equities (ASX 200, Small Ords, Banks, Resources, sectors, AREITs).
Australian Fixed Income (corporate credit, government bonds, rates)
Other key markets (AUDUSD, A$ Gold, housing)
Capital Market Assumptions (expected returns for the major assets)

The pack focuses on delivering insight into:

Valuations: is the market cheap/expensive (or neutral)
Trend: is the market in an up/down trend
Price: updates and visibility on where things are tracking
Relative value: comparing absolute and relative prospects

Overall it’s an easy way of quickly and efficiently understanding where the big risks and opportunities are in Australian markets.

Act Now — activate a 7-day trial pass to get instant access to the latest chartbook (+archives) and see if it’s right for you:

Best wishes,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research & Founder
Topdown Charts | www.topdowncharts.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/

NEW: Other services by Topdown Charts

Topdown Charts Entry-Level — [TD entry-level service]
Topdown Charts Professional — [institutional service]
Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]
Monthly Gold Market Pack — [Gold charts]
Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

Chart: Aussie Small Caps

Callum Thomas — Tue, 23 Sep 2025 04:11:21 GMT

Australian Small Cap stocks have had an exceptional run since the April tariff tantrum reset, but what’s behind the recent move —and is it sustainable?

From a technical standpoint Aussie small caps look great, we’ve seen a failed breakdown, a successful breakout to new highs, and overall a solid uptrend being established. This is a clear picture of strength, and the only quibble might be that it looks a little overbought short-term (as markets tend to do during the early stages of new bull markets).
Unlike their US peers, Australian small caps are starting to look somewhat expensive, but from a cycles and market timing perspective we care less about expensive valuations: a. during the early stages of the move; b. when technicals are very strong; and c. if the valuation indicator is high *but not yet extreme*.
Add to this the generally strong price action in global equities (global risk-on sentiment and flows), RBA + Fed rate cuts, and bull market in gold (+improving outlook for commodities and traditional cyclicals) there probably is room to run here. [n.b. the ASX Small Ords has significant exposure to gold miners and traditional cyclicals; minimal exposure to tech].

Key takeaway: Australian small caps are breaking out with strong technicals, and there still looks to be room to run on valuations and macro.

This note was brought to you by the

SURVEY …what do you reckon?

About the Australian Market Valuation Book

Specifically, the pack covers:

Australian Equities (ASX 200, Small Ords, Banks, Resources, sectors, AREITs).
Australian Fixed Income (corporate credit, government bonds, rates)
Other key markets (AUDUSD, A$ Gold, housing)
Capital Market Assumptions (expected returns for the major assets)

The pack focuses on delivering insight into:

Valuations: is the market cheap/expensive (or neutral)
Trend: is the market in an up/down trend
Price: updates and visibility on where things are tracking
Relative value: comparing absolute and relative prospects

Overall it’s an easy way of quickly and efficiently understanding where the big risks and opportunities are in Australian markets.

Act Now — activate a 7-day trial pass to get instant access to the latest chartbook (+archives) and see if it’s right for you:

Best wishes,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research & Founder
Topdown Charts | www.topdowncharts.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/

NEW: Other services by Topdown Charts

Topdown Charts Entry-Level — [TD entry-level service]
Topdown Charts Professional — [institutional service]
Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]
Monthly Gold Market Pack — [Gold charts]
Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

Chart: AUDUSD Next Steps

Callum Thomas — Tue, 09 Sep 2025 03:16:36 GMT

With the RBA in rate-cut mode, commodities hovering around the lows, and China stuck in a soft patch — most people would think the outlook for the AUDUSD would be fairly grim. But there’s a few key reasons to anticipate upside here.

The valuation indicator* [pictured below] for the AUDUSD exchange rate is ticking up from its cheapest level since 2020.
The AUDUSD itself has been trending up off the April 2025 lows, and like many other markets —the tariff tantrum and volatility of H1 appears to have served as a healthy reset and bullish turning point.
Although it still needs to get through short-term overhead resistance, the combination of cheap valuations, crowded short futures positioning (contrarian bullish signal), and in my view a bullish outlook for commodities (and bearish outlook for the US dollar in general) makes for a bullish setup for the Aussie dollar here.

Key takeaway: The AUDUSD appears to be going through a bullish turning point.

*(the valuation indicator is a z-score and measures a combination of AUDUSD deviation from PPP valuations & long-term averages)

This note was brought to you by the service by Topdown Charts.

About the Australian Market Valuation Book

Specifically, the pack covers:

Australian Equities (ASX 200, Small Ords, Banks, Resources, sectors, AREITs).
Australian Fixed Income (corporate credit, government bonds, rates)
Other key markets (AUDUSD, A$ Gold, housing)
Capital Market Assumptions (expected returns for the major assets)

The pack focuses on delivering insight into:

Valuations: is the market cheap/expensive (or neutral)
Trend: is the market in an up/down trend
Price: updates and visibility on where things are tracking
Relative value: comparing absolute and relative prospects

Overall it’s an easy way of quickly and efficiently understanding where the big risks and opportunities are in Australian markets.

Act Now — activate a 7-day trial pass to get instant access to the latest chartbook (+archives) and see if it’s right for you:

Best wishes,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research & Founder
Topdown Charts | www.topdowncharts.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/

NEW: Other services by Topdown Charts

Topdown Charts Entry-Level — [TD entry-level service]
Topdown Charts Professional — [institutional service]
Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]
Monthly Gold Market Pack — [Gold charts]
Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

Australian Market Valuation Book - August 2025

Callum Thomas — Mon, 01 Sep 2025 02:45:24 GMT

Hello and welcome to the !

Australian Market Valuation Book August 2025

891KB ∙ PDF file

The pack takes a focus on Valuation Indicators and includes:

Composite valua…

Australian Market Valuation Book - July 2025

Callum Thomas — Mon, 04 Aug 2025 01:06:52 GMT

Hello and welcome to the !

Australian Market Valuation Book July 2025

888KB ∙ PDF file

The pack takes a focus on Valuation Indicators and includes:

Composite valua…

Australian Market Valuation Book - June 2025

Callum Thomas — Tue, 01 Jul 2025 04:39:38 GMT

Hello and welcome to the !

Australian Market Valuation Book June 2025

884KB ∙ PDF file

The pack takes a focus on Valuation Indicators and includes:

Composite valua…

Chart: Australian Government Bonds

Callum Thomas — Wed, 18 Jun 2025 03:51:56 GMT

Here’s the first edition of what will be semi-regular updates on Australian Markets (and occasionally NZ markets, if there is interest) — a key part of this will be highlighting content from the Australian Market Valuation Book, but also presenting useful timely updates intramonth.

This week we’re looking at Australian Commonwealth Government Bonds (ACGBs), with a focus on the 10-year part of the curve.

The chart shows the 7-10yr ACGB index in the black line (i.e. the price), with its 10-month moving average. The reason we look at 10-month moving averages (which is approximately 200 trading days) is that the 10-month/200-day moving average gives a best guess proxy/heuristic for trend.

When the price is above the 10-month average, it indicates an uptrend (and when the 10-month moving average is upward sloping that’s another indicator of an uptrend).

It’s worth keeping these basic technical heuristics in mind because they are highly complementary when used alongside valuation indicators.

Valuation indicators (when designed well) are supposed to tell you when the market is expensive (at risk of falling or at least topping out) or cheap (greater chance of upside opportunity). But one of the biggest pitfalls in using valuation indicators is timing, this is why all of our valuation charts show this basic technical data alongside the valuation indicators.

With that established, let’s see what’s going on with ACGBs.

Price is undergoing classic bottoming behavior: it reached a capitulation low, turned up, and has made a series of minor higher highs and higher lows + price is above its (upward sloping) 10-month moving average. So from a technicals standpoint it looks promising; we just ideally need to see it break out of that range.

As for the valuation side of things, it’s still showing up as extreme cheap. So you have promising technicals + cheap valuations, which is generally a winning combination.

The main risk from here would be that it gets cheaper or stays cheap —i.e. that the initial improvement in the technicals fails, but we should be able to detect that by monitoring the price side of things.

Other than that it’s about keeping tabs on the macro pulse, in terms of catalysts e.g. a string of RBA rate cuts (and/or weaker growth and inflation) would be helpful (and the RBA has indeed already pivoted to easing).

But a final thought is, while the outlook I would say is kind of binary (we either get recession or resurgence), from an asset allocation standpoint it’s particularly interesting to see diversifiers/downside protectors like bonds trading at cheap valuations. In other words, it’s much cheaper than usual to have downside protection from bonds than usual (and bonds will perform well in a non-inflationary downturn).

So a few things to ponder on and keep track of here.

Key point: Australian Government Bonds are cheap and bottoming.

n.b. the Australian Government Bond Index shown in the chart is the ICE BofA 7-10 Year Australia Government Index (price only), the red line is its 10-month moving average, and the blue line is our proprietary valuation indicator for Australian Government Bonds (focused on the 10-year), and the chart is from our Aussie monthly pack.

This note was brought to you by the

About the Australian Market Valuation Book

Specifically, the pack covers:

Australian Equities (ASX 200, Small Ords, Banks, Resources, sectors, AREITs).
Australian Fixed Income (corporate credit, government bonds, rates)
Other key markets (AUDUSD, A$ Gold, housing)
Capital Market Assumptions (expected returns for the major assets)

The pack focuses on delivering insight into:

Valuations: is the market cheap/expensive (or neutral)
Trend: is the market in an up/down trend
Price: updates and visibility on where things are tracking
Relative value: comparing absolute and relative prospects

Overall it’s an easy way of quickly and efficiently understanding where the big risks and opportunities are in Australian markets.

Act Now — activate a 7-day trial pass to get instant access to the latest chartbook (+archives) and see if it’s right for you:

Best wishes,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research & Founder
Topdown Charts | www.topdowncharts.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/

NEW: Other services by Topdown Charts

Topdown Charts Entry-Level — [TD entry-level service]
Topdown Charts Professional — [institutional service]
Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]
Monthly Gold Market Pack — [Gold charts]
Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

Australian Market Valuation Book - May 2025

Callum Thomas — Mon, 02 Jun 2025 09:05:06 GMT

Hello and welcome to the !

Australian Market Valuation Book May 2025

803KB ∙ PDF file

The pack takes a focus on Valuation Indicators and includes:

Composite valua…

Australian Market Valuation Book - April 2025

Callum Thomas — Thu, 01 May 2025 05:28:15 GMT

Hello and welcome to the !

Australian Market Valuation Book April 2025

780KB ∙ PDF file